One of the best ways to bet on baseball is via MLB team futures, which let you bet on the Jays (or any team) to win their division, make the postseason, win the AL or NL pennant, or even the World Series.
Another of the most popular team futures bets is the over/under on regular-season wins for every MLB team. See below for the latest MLB Win Totals odds at Canadian online sportsbooks.
AL, NL win totals odds
Here’s how the MLB win totals over/unders look for this season. Click on any odds to go directly to the sportsbook and get your win totals bet in.
How MLB win totals work
It’s pretty simple really: Sportsbooks post expected win totals lines for every MLB team, typically somewhere around 87.5 wins for each team. Then, you bet, before the start of the season, at the currently posted odds, whether the team’s actual total at the season’s end will land under or over that line.
For that typical 87.5 win line, the over pays if the team wins 88 or more games and the under pays if the team wins 87 or fewer.
These lines can be found under the ‘MLB’ tab and ‘Team Wins’ or ‘Regular Season Win Totals’ subset via any online sportsbook or sportsbook app in Canada.
MLB lines and odds may change before the start of the season. and as the season progresses, but you lock in your odds at the time you place your bet.
If the team you bet on gets off to a hot start and looks like a sure bet to get over the Win Totals line, you can expect their odds (and any possible payout) to go down considerably. But your bet still pays at the generous odds you locked them in at.
Only a decision to cancel or shorten the MLB season will void these bets. Injuries, trades, and other factors that may impact win totals are all considered just a part of the game.
Blue Jays win totals past 10 years
At the start of the 2021 season, win totals odds for the Jays sat around 86.5 at most sportsbooks. However, the Jays hadn’t won that many games since 2016 and only managed to win that many twice in the past decade.
If you took the over, you would have been paid well as the Jays rang up 91 wins in 2021. Here’s a look at how the Jays have fared over the past decade or so to give you a benchmark for your projections:
|2021||91-71||4th in AL East|
|2020||32-28||3rd in AL East, Lost ALWC|
|2019||67-95||4th in AL East|
|2018||73-89||4th in AL East|
|2017||76-86||4th in AL East|
|2016||89-73||2nd in AL East Lost ALCS|
|2015||93-69||1st in AL East Lost ALCS|
|2014||83-79||3rd in AL East|
|2013||74-88||5th in AL East|
|2012||73-89||4th in AL East|
MLB win totals betting trends
Sportsbooks set MLB win totals lines by looking at how each team performed last season and making projections on the impact of any offseason roster moves. That means you should probably do the same when deciding to bet the over or under on those lines.
Of course, sportsbooks take a lot more than just last season’s wins and offseason roster moves into account when setting MLB win totals lines. They may use computer modeling taking into account all kinds of data and projections. They also consider money, projecting betting totals to make sure the line stands a chance of drawing an equal amount of betting to each side.
Plus, even sportsbooks have to do a little guesswork, as it’s impossible to accurately predict how many wins a player or pitcher changing teams will have. That means you’ll need to do a little guesswork yourself when deciding to bet the over or under on the win totals lines. Plus, whether you use your computer model, algorithm, or not, you should be considering stats outside of simple wins and where the public will likely be betting as well.
You might also consider looking at baseball websites that are analytically inclined to a little advice. PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs are both great resources for MLB win totals bettors as both feature win total projection tools.
MLB win totals – 3 essential tips
Here are three tips for betting on MLB win totals futures market:
- Look around the internet ahead of the season and you’re bound to find a ton of content surrounding MLB win totals. Experts from around the web will weigh in on the lines and give their predictions for each team’s win totals based on their research. While it’s probably best to do your homework and develop your predictions, comparing those to these so-called expert picks is never a bad idea.
- Start with the staff: Pitchers win games, so it’s probably a good idea to start building your win projections with a look at each team’s pitching staff. Teams that have starting rotations loaded with projected 20-game winners and bullpens with a potential 50-save closer are going to win a lot of games. Hitting is less consistent and predictable.
- Signing of the times: In this era of free agency, the top teams sign ace pitchers and MVP-candidate sluggers in the offseason in an attempt to get better. Pay heed to free agency as these signings will have an impact on the teams losing stars and those adding them. In other words, big-time free agents are signed to impact winning and they often do, making offseason roster moves as important as a team’s previous season winning percentage when you’re looking at MLB win totals lines this year.
When is the best time to bet win totals?
Like any futures market, the earlier you can get a bet down in the MLB win totals market, the better. You lock in the line and odds when you place a bet and they tend to tighten up the closer it is to the start of the season. Bet early for the best odds and softest lines.
Of course, win totals are a season-long prop bet and only available before the season starts. Other MLB futures bets, including division and league winners, to make the postseason and win the World Series are available throughout the season at constantly changing odds you lock in when you bet.
Who sets MLB win totals?
Oddsmakers set the MLB win totals odds and lines based on various factors, including each team:
- Previous record/ Winning percentage
- Offseason roster moves; and
- Various performance data and analytics
Oddsmakers also employ certain modelling, projections, and good old-fashioned guesswork when setting these lines. Plus, they consider what the public will think and how they will bet, trying to set the lines so they draw an equal amount of betting to each side and sportsbooks can realize the vigorish without sweating the outcome. Finally, sportsbooks look at what the competition is doing and set lines based on that.
More MLB futures odds
Of course, MLB season win totals aren’t the only MLB futures market single-game wagering will bring with it to Canada. Others include: