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In terms of regulated iGaming in Canada, the last four years have served as a massive testing ground. And by most measures, the experiment has worked.
Ontario is Canada’s first regulated iGaming market. The province has since generated over $10 billion in gross gaming revenue, making it one of the largest regulated markets in North America. Alberta took note, and this July, it became the second province to open a competitive market.
Now analysts are already asking who’s next.
Front-runner Canadian Province: New Brunswick
New Brunswick may be the next province to watch. A recent report in the New Brunswick Telegraph-Journal revealed growing political appetite for an Ontario-style regulated iGaming market within the Picture Province.
Recently, Finance Minister René Legacy has publicly signalled that channelling grey market operators into a licensed, competitive framework is actively on the table. That’s mainly because the financial pressure within the province is really hard to ignore.
The New Brunswick Lotteries and Gaming Corporation fell $5.7 million short of its projected gaming revenues last year. This comes against a backdrop of a record $1.37 billion provincial deficit and a projected $6 billion debt increase over the next three years.
For a province staring down those numbers, a regulated iGaming New Brunswick market represents an attractive revenue stream. Ontario has already demonstrated what’s possible. New Brunswick’s politicians appear to be doing the math.
Currently, the province features a monopoly model, with the Atlantic Lottery Corporation being the only legal online gambling option. Exactly when that structure changes depends on when political intent will turn into policy.
Second in Line: British Columbia
British Columbia is another province the industry is watching as the second most likely. The province already has an industry-leading responsible gambling program in place. That’s a strong foundation for any expanded market.
What’s more, private lobbyists in B.C. began pushing for a competitive iGaming market as early as 2025.
Troy Ross, spokesperson for the Canadian Online Gaming Alliance, confirmed that discussions with B.C. decision-makers were already underway. However, he cautioned that Alberta’s move toward regulation did not make B.C.’s path inevitable.
“A number of folks are engaging decision makers in B.C., but these discussions are just beginning.”
Ross said, declining to speculate about the B.C. government’s plans to regulate, or to suggest a time frame for that to happen. He added,
“It’s too early to tell what the B.C. government may do.”
Nonetheless, this unclear window is familiar. It’s the same trajectory we saw in Ontario and Alberta before they acted to authorize competitive iGaming. Whether B.C. will follow the same arc remains to be seen, but the push behind the scenes is significant, and the pressure is mounting.
Wild Card: Quebec
Quebec is the Canadian province that keeps the iGaming industry guessing, and for good reason. It’s the second most populous province in Canada with a deep sporting culture and an established lottery infrastructure.
La Belle Province has everything it needs to support a competitive iGaming market. But what it lacks, at least for now, is the political intent to legislate one.
Loto-Québec, established in 1969, is the crown corporation in Quebec and is responsible for managing all gambling activity within the province. It runs the sole state-owned gambling website as well as the lotteries and four physical casinos found within the eastern Canadian province.
As such, the corporation’s grip on the province’s gaming market is significant and deeply entrenched, making it a harder wall to move.
Industry insiders are frank about it. Opening Quebec to private operators is a considerably tougher sell than it was in Ontario or Alberta, particularly for U.S.-based companies. The province’s upcoming election adds another layer of uncertainty.
Advocacy groups have been chipping away at the conversation across party lines. There are, in fact, early signs that the needle is gradually moving. But most industry observers place Quebec’s regulatory shift somewhere between three and five years out, at minimum. Until then, the Quebec gambling market remains what it has always been in this debate: too big to ignore, too complicated to predict.
